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Initiated-Event Model of Statistical Point Processes

Award Information
Agency: Department of Health and Human Services
Branch: N/A
Contract: N/A
Agency Tracking Number: 22453
Amount: $78,578.00
Phase: Phase I
Program: SBIR
Solicitation Topic Code: N/A
Solicitation Number: N/A
Timeline
Solicitation Year: N/A
Award Year: 1993
Award Start Date (Proposal Award Date): N/A
Award End Date (Contract End Date): N/A
Small Business Information
20 New England Business Center
Andover, MA 01810
United States
DUNS: N/A
HUBZone Owned: No
Woman Owned: No
Socially and Economically Disadvantaged: No
Principal Investigator
 Thomas J. Manuccia
 (508) 689-0003
Business Contact
Phone: () -
Research Institution
N/A
Abstract

This proposal seeks to introduce a new statistical methodology for event- history data to the mental health community. This model processes paired lists of event times to discern microscopic patterns in event timing, and is called the Initiated Event Model (IEM). The goals of the underlying model, and the output of the associated set of algorithms is a histogram of the various random delay times that would occur if events in one list helps precipitate or induce at least some of the "resultant" outcome events in the second list. The model continue to make useful predictions even when the initiating events occur so frequently that a given outcome could be due to any of the several proceeding initiating events. It also works in the presence of randomly occurring outcome events, uncorrelated with the set of proposed initiating events. The work for in the Phase I effort is designed to allow feasibility to be established. We propose to; (a) provide analytic and Monte Carlo estimates of the bias ed variance of the estimator; (b) investigate its domain of applicability; (c) redesign and rewrite existing-program code; and (d), (e) test its feasibility on two well-analyzed mental health data sets.

* Information listed above is at the time of submission. *

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