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MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOR ELICITATION IN BAYESIAN REGRESSION

Award Information
Agency: National Science Foundation
Branch: N/A
Contract: N/A
Agency Tracking Number: 10653
Amount: $49,965.00
Phase: Phase I
Program: SBIR
Solicitation Topic Code: N/A
Solicitation Number: N/A
Timeline
Solicitation Year: N/A
Award Year: 1989
Award Start Date (Proposal Award Date): N/A
Award End Date (Contract End Date): N/A
Small Business Information
1895 Preston White Dr #300
Reston, VA 22091
United States
DUNS: N/A
HUBZone Owned: No
Woman Owned: No
Socially and Economically Disadvantaged: No
Principal Investigator
 Kathryn B Laskey
 Principal Investigator
 (703) 620-0660
Business Contact
Phone: () -
Research Institution
N/A
Abstract

THIS RESEARCH PROGRAM WILL DEVELOP AND EXTEND THE MATHEMATICAL THEORY UNDERLYING THE ELICITATION OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR USE IN BAYESIAN REGRESSION ANALYSES. INCORPORATING EXPERT OPINION IN THE FORM OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS IS ESSENTIAL IN APPLICATIONS FOR WHICH AVAILABLE DATA ARE INSUFFICIENT FOR OBTAINING PRECISE PARAMETER ESTIMATES USING CLASSICAL ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES, BUT FOR WHICH SUBSTANTIAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE IN THE FORM OF EXPERT KNOWLEDGE. EARLIER WORK BY THE PROJECT TEAM HAS RESULTED IN GENERALLY APPLICABLE ELICITATION METHODOLOGYFOR STANDARD REGRESSION MODELS. THE GOAL OF PHASE I RESEARCH IS TO DEVELOP THEORY FOR ELICITING NEW TYPES OF MODELS FROM AN EXPERT'S JUDGMENT ABOUT FUTURE HYPOTHETICAL OBSERVATION; AND TO ESTABLISH THE FEASIBILITY OF FURTHER THEORETICAL ADVANCES AND SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT DURING PHASE II. FOUR RESEARCH OBJECTIVES FOR PHASE I HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED:(1)INVESTIGATE THE RELAXATION OF ASSUMPTIONS UNDERLYING EXISTING ELICITATION MODELS--ESPECIALLY EXTENDINGTHE METHODS TO MODELS FOR DETECTING OUTLIERS;(2)DEVELOP THEORY TO EXPLOIT THE STRUCTURE OF SPECIAL CASES OF THE NORMAL LINEAR MODEL (SUCH AS HIERARCHICAL PRIORS FOR ANOVA MODELS);(3)DEVELOP METHODS FOR ELICITING PRIOR INFORMATION ABOUT COMMON STATISTICAL MODELS OTHER THAN THE NORMAL LINEAR MODEL; AND (4) DEVELOP IMPROVED COMPUTATIONAL TECHNIQUES WHEN EXPERT JUDGMENTS DO NOT LEAD TO CLOSED-FORM SOLUTIONS FOR PRIOR PARAMETERS.

* Information listed above is at the time of submission. *

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