A Framework for an Optimal and Adaptive BMDS Firing Doctrine

The BMDS is being developed as a fully integrated, layered defense capable of defending against all ranges of threats. A critical aspect of this development is an integrated approach to interceptor allocation. A model-based framework for optimizing multi-layer BMDS performance, developing interceptor firing doctrine, and providing for adaptive, real-time interceptor allocation was developed in Phase I. A key feature of this framework is its ability to adapt interceptor allocation to the performance of system functions (e.g., kill assessment) and the reliability of events (e.g., booster separation) that affect the outcome of the interaction between an attacker and the interceptors allocated to kill that attacker. The feasibility and utility of this approach were demonstrated in a desktop environment using a two-layer BMDS (notionally boost phase and midcourse layers) with imperfect shoot-look-shoot (SLS) between the layers. The objective of Phase II is to develop (1) additional interceptor allocation functionality (e.g, by adding a model of midcourse discrimination), (2) an allocation-centric, Monte Carlo simulation, and (3) allocation functionality based on value threatened (versus the attacker-centric objective function used in Phase I).