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Calibration of Ensemble Forecasts Using Reforecast Datasets

Award Information

Agency:
Department of Defense 		Branch:
Defense Threat Reduction Agency 		Award ID:
79006 		Program Year/Program:
2006 / SBIR
Agency Tracking Number:
RDI060003360 		Solicitation Year:
N/A 		Solicitation Topic Code:
N/A 		Solicitation Number:
N/A
Small Business Information
ATMOSPHERIC TECHNOLOGY SERVICES CO. LLC
P O Box 3029 Norman, OK 73070 3029
View profile »
Woman-Owned: Yes
Minority-Owned: Yes
HUBZone-Owned: Yes
 
Phase 1
Fiscal Year: 2006
Title: Calibration of Ensemble Forecasts Using Reforecast Datasets
Agency / Branch: DOD / DTRA
Contract: HDTRA1-06-P-0087
Award Amount: $97,601.00
 

Abstract:

The accurate numerical prediction of hazardous airborne plumes requires two important capabilities. First, meteorological conditions at fine spatial scale both at the time of plume release as well as a few hours into the future, and second, quantification of this information in a statistically reliable probabilistic framework. The proposed study will use a combination of fine-scale ensemble re-forecasts, as well as historical surface observations, to achieve the goals of the solicitation. Because no unique method exists for doing so, we examine several and will pursue that which is most accurate, efficient and adaptable to future needs. The first approach, arguably the most simple and computationally efficient, involves using a 20-year history of surface observations to create regression equations that yield statistically reliable probabilistic point forecasts given current conditions. At the other extreme, fine-scale reforecasts will be generated from historical re-analyses and both linear and nonlinear regression approaches applied for calibration. Uniquely, we combine the 20-years of historical observations with this framework such that the final outcome is a combination of dynamical forecast and observation-based statistics. Finally, we expand the nearest-neighbor analog method using ensemble reforecasts alone or in combination with historical surface observations.

Principal Investigator:

Fanyou Kong
Senior Scientist
4052270084
fanyou.kong@atscwx.com

Business Contact:

Vicki E. Rose
Managing Business Director
4052270084
vicki.rose@atscwx.com
Small Business Information at Submission:

ATMOSPHERIC TECHNOLOGY SERVICES CO. LLC
P O Box 3029 Norman, OK 73070

EIN/Tax ID: 510473759
DUNS: N/A
Number of Employees:
Woman-Owned: No
Minority-Owned: No
HUBZone-Owned: No